$ fiddler analyze --markout --edge-map --paper

Is the maker edge real — and where does it live?

Fiddler's bet (the SSRN “sharks” thesis): on Kalshi, patient makers beat aggressive takers — if their fills aren't toxic. Every number below is a hypothetical passive-maker markout measured on real captured World Cup flow. PAPER · NO LIVE ORDERS

The credibility keystone. In this settled game, a passive “underbid & hold” maker got filled on the two losers as they bled to zero and was skipped entirely on the winner (the draw) as it climbed away. You get filled exactly when you're wrong. That's why the real edge is in the entry — quoting into balanced flow — not holding to settlement.